Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members of each chamber can override the governor's veto.
Arkansas › Arkansas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arkansas House District 10
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (61%).
Allen is favored to win: Allen wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.
Allen (D)
61%
chance of winning
McAlindon (R)
39%
- Average margin
- D+2.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
McAlindon is favored to win: McAlindon wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Allen (D)
34%
chance of winning
McAlindon (R)
66%
- Average margin
- R+3.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Jacob Allen
RepublicanIncumbent
Mindy McAlindon
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Arkansas state offices
- +0.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.24 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.28 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.28 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 39,122
- People per km²
- 461
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 49%
- White, no degree
- 38%of adults
- White 72%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 3%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 16%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
15,138 votes · R+13.1✓ Mindy McAlindon (R)56.6%
Kate Schaffer (D)43.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
14,907 two-party votes · R+9.9 · R+8.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.0%
Kamala Harris (D)45.0%
2022
11,578 votes · R+12.6✓ Mindy McAlindon (R)56.3%
Kate Schaffer (D)43.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
10,177 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mike Holcomb (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
16,629 two-party votes · R+13.5 · R+18.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.7%
Joe Biden (D)43.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
12,153 two-party votes · R+26.1 · R+28.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.0%