Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members of each chamber can override the governor's veto.
Arkansas › Arkansas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arkansas House District 13
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (62%).
Smith is favored to win: Smith wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Smith (D)
62%
chance of winning
Richardson (R)
38%
- Average margin
- D+2.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Richardson is favored to win: Richardson wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Smith (D)
38%
chance of winning
Richardson (R)
62%
- Average margin
- R+2.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+10
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Mitchell Smith
RepublicanIncumbent
Scott Richardson
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Arkansas state offices
- +0.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.27 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.69 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -4.69 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+10: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 26,902
- People per km²
- 546
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 47%
- White, no degree
- 27%of adults
- White 46%
- Hispanic 18%
- Black 2%
- Asian 17%
- Other / multiracial 17%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
10,544 votes · R+16.9✓ R Scott Richardson (R)58.4%
Ashley Sheys (D)41.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
10,673 two-party votes · R+9.3 · R+7.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.6%
Kamala Harris (D)45.4%
2022
7,475 votes · R+11.3✓ R Scott Richardson (R)55.6%
Jen Standerfer (D)44.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
8,762 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ David Hillman (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
9,889 two-party votes · R+10.7 · R+15.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.3%
Joe Biden (D)44.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
7,676 two-party votes · R+24.7 · R+26.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.6%