Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms, with one two-year term after each redistricting, so about half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Arkansas › Arkansas State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arkansas State Senate District 13
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (81%).
Sweatman is clearly favored to win: Sweatman wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Sweatman (D)
81%
chance of winning
Achor (R)
19%
- Average margin
- D+6.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (69%).
Sweatman is favored to win: Sweatman wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Sweatman (D)
69%
chance of winning
Achor (R)
31%
- Average margin
- D+4.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members of each chamber can override the governor's veto.
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Allison Sweatman
Republican
Brandon Achor
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Arkansas state offices
- +0.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.64 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.66 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 93,668
- People per km²
- 317
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 60%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 29%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
40,993 two-party votes · R+1.2 · D+0.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.6%
Kamala Harris (D)49.4%
2022
31,499 votes · R+8.4✓ Jane English (R)52.5%
Allison Grigsby Sweatman (D)44.3%
Noah Jones (L)3.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
34,673 votes · R+50.4✓ Alan Clark (R)75.2%
Brandon Overly (D)24.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
43,392 two-party votes · R+4.5 · R+9.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.3%
Joe Biden (D)47.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
38,927 two-party votes · R+12.8 · R+15.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)43.6%
2012 Earlier district lines
30,069 votes · R+8.5✓ Alan Clark (R)52.4%
Mike Fletcher (D)44.2%
Frank Gilbert (L)3.4%