Democratic
North Carolina › North Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina House District 9
Reeder is clearly favored to win: Reeder wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Kempner (D)
17%
chance of winning
Reeder (R)
83%
- Average margin
- R+6.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+3
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Reeder is favored to win: Reeder wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Kempner (D)
32%
chance of winning
Reeder (R)
68%
- Average margin
- R+4.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Timothy Reeder
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Carolina state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.98 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.04 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.04 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+10: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 87,351
- People per km²
- 86
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 37%of adults
- White 61%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 25%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
48,061 votes · R+11.9✓ Timothy Reeder (R)55.9%
Claire Kempner (D)44.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
48,985 two-party votes · R+9.9 · R+8.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.0%
Kamala Harris (D)45.0%
2022 Earlier district lines
30,070 votes · R+1.2✓ Timothy Reeder (R)50.6%
Brian Farkas (D)49.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
75,078 votes · D+2.3✓ Brian Farkas (D)51.2%
Perrin Jones (R)48.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
59,991 two-party votes · R+11.7 · R+16.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.9%
Joe Biden (D)44.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
41,194 two-party votes · R+12.6 · R+14.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)43.7%