Democratic
North Carolina › North Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina House District 105
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (78%).
McCool is favored to win: McCool wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
McCool (D)
78%
chance of winning
Cotham (R)
22%
- Average margin
- D+5.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (80%).
McCool is favored to win: McCool wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
McCool (D)
80%
chance of winning
Cotham (R)
20%
- Average margin
- D+8.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Tricia Cotham
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Carolina state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.27 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.95 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.95 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean Even: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 93,430
- People per km²
- 594
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 59%
- White, no degree
- 29%of adults
- White 73%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 9%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
54,385 votes · R+0.4✓ Tricia Ann Cotham (R)50.2%
Nicole Sidman (D)49.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
54,417 two-party votes · D+0.6 · D+2.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.3%
Donald Trump (R)49.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
30,852 votes · D+13.7✓ Wesley Harris (D)56.9%
Joshua Niday (R)43.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
93,957 votes · D+9.6✓ Wesley Harris (D)54.8%
Amy Bynum (R)45.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
59,227 two-party votes · R+1.0 · R+5.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.5%
Joe Biden (D)49.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
48,127 two-party votes · R+11.4 · R+13.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.3%