Democratic
North Carolina › North Carolina State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina State Senate District 4
Newton is favored to win: Newton wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Rivera (D)
25%
chance of winning
Newton (R)
75%
- Average margin
- R+4.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Newton is favored to win: Newton wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Rivera (D)
38%
chance of winning
Newton (R)
62%
- Average margin
- R+2.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+10
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Buck Newton
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Carolina state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.35 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.23 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.23 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 218,428
- People per km²
- 70
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 21%
- White, no degree
- 38%of adults
- White 48%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 33%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
100,485 votes · R+10.2✓ Buck Newton (R)55.1%
Raymond Smith, Jr. (D)44.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
102,259 two-party votes · R+10.1 · R+8.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.1%
Kamala Harris (D)44.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
67,181 votes · R+15.0✓ Buck Newton (R)57.5%
Milton F Fitch (D)42.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
179,854 votes · D+14.3✓ Milton F Fitch Jr (D)57.1%
Sammy Davis Webb (R)42.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
106,442 two-party votes · R+5.3 · R+9.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.7%
Joe Biden (D)47.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
94,494 two-party votes · R+4.7 · R+6.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.7%