Democratic
North Carolina › North Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina House District 20
Scalise is favored to win: Scalise wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Merrick (D)
33%
chance of winning
Scalise (R)
67%
- Average margin
- R+3.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Scalise is favored to win: Scalise wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Merrick (D)
35%
chance of winning
Scalise (R)
65%
- Average margin
- R+3.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Dane Scalise
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Carolina state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.81 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.23 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+10: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 95,819
- People per km²
- 224
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 47%
- White, no degree
- 41%of adults
- White 77%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 8%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
57,283 votes · R+11.6✓ Ted Davis, Jr. (R)55.8%
Jonathan M. Berger (D)44.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
58,493 two-party votes · R+10.2 · R+8.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.1%
Kamala Harris (D)44.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
37,303 votes · R+2.3✓ Ted Davis Jr (R)51.1%
Amy Block Deloach (D)48.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
101,599 votes · R+10.7✓ Ted Davis Jr (R)55.3%
Adam Ericson (D)44.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
73,149 two-party votes · R+10.5 · R+15.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.2%
Joe Biden (D)44.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
60,428 two-party votes · R+19.6 · R+21.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.2%