Democratic
North Carolina › North Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina House District 82
Echevarria is favored to win: Echevarria wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Bishopp (D)
35%
chance of winning
Echevarria (R)
65%
- Average margin
- R+2.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+7
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (44% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Bishopp (D)
44%
chance of winning
Echevarria (R)
56%
- Average margin
- R+1.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Brian Echevarria
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Carolina state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.62 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.53 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.53 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 92,389
- People per km²
- 207
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 48%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 58%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 15%
- Asian 12%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
49,614 votes · R+8.7✓ Brian Echevarria (R)54.3%
Sabrina Berry (D)45.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
50,387 two-party votes · R+8.4 · R+6.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.2%
Kamala Harris (D)45.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
19,935 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Kristin Baker (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
97,435 votes · R+6.0✓ Kristin Baker (R)53.0%
Aimy Steele (D)47.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
70,410 two-party votes · R+9.5 · R+14.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.7%
Joe Biden (D)45.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
57,564 two-party votes · R+22.7 · R+24.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.7%
Also on the ballot in North Carolina
Neighboring districts
HD-67Jocelyn TorresCody Huneycutt>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-69Heidi SinsleyDean Arp99%Rep.97%Rep. HD-73Thomas MonksJonathan AlmondFlip riskFlip risk60%Rep.50%Rep. HD-83Cortez FerrellGrant Campbell>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-98Beth HelfrichJohn Rhodes96%Dem.84%Dem. HD-99Veleria Levy—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-105Ken McCoolTricia CothamD flipD flip78%Dem.80%Dem. HD-106Rodney Sadler—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-112Jordan Lopez—>99%Dem.>99%Dem.