DemocraticIncumbent
Lisa Grafstein
- Experience
- State legislature
North Carolina › North Carolina State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina State Senate District 13
Grafstein is very likely to win: Grafstein wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Grafstein (D)
98%
chance of winning
Brederode (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+18.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Grafstein is clearly favored to win: Grafstein wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Grafstein (D)
88%
chance of winning
Brederode (R)
12%
- Average margin
- D+11.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Robert van Brederode
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Carolina state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 3.48 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.75 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.75 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 233,059
- People per km²
- 347
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 54%
- White, no degree
- 28%of adults
- White 65%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 14%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
127,603 votes · D+3.4✓ Lisa Grafstein (D)50.2%
Scott Lassiter (R)46.9%
Susan Hogarth (L)2.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
128,855 two-party votes · D+4.9 · D+6.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.4%
Donald Trump (R)47.6%
2022 Earlier district lines
81,707 votes · D+29.1✓ Lisa Grafstein (D)62.3%
David Bankert (R)34.3%
Michael C Munger (L)3.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
142,455 votes · R+27.1✓ Danny Earl Britt Jr (R)63.6%
Barbara Yates-Lockamy (D)36.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
121,959 two-party votes · D+2.3 · R+2.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.1%
Donald Trump (R)48.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
87,793 two-party votes · R+7.5 · R+9.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.3%
Also on the ballot in North Carolina
Neighboring districts
SD-10Pat LeGrandBenton Sawrey99%Rep.96%Rep. SD-12Tanya White AndersonJim Burgin98%Rep.96%Rep. SD-14Dan BlueAngela McCarty>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-15Jay ChaudhuriDavid Bankert>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-16Gale AdcockPhilip Hensley>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-17Sydney BatchShirley Johnson>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-20Natalie Murdock—>99%Dem.>99%Dem.