Democratic
North Carolina › North Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina House District 64
Riddell is favored to win: Riddell wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Barnes (D)
36%
chance of winning
Riddell (R)
64%
- Average margin
- R+2.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+7
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Riddell is favored to win: Riddell wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Barnes (D)
34%
chance of winning
Riddell (R)
66%
- Average margin
- R+3.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Dennis Riddell
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Carolina state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.19 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.94 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.94 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+10: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 88,734
- People per km²
- 144
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 43%of adults
- White 56%
- Hispanic 18%
- Black 19%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
44,753 votes · R+9.7✓ Dennis Riddell (R)54.8%
LeVon Barnes (D)45.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
45,044 two-party votes · R+8.7 · R+7.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.4%
Kamala Harris (D)45.6%
2022 Earlier district lines
32,488 votes · R+25.1✓ Dennis Riddell (R)62.5%
Ron Osborne (D)37.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
87,794 votes · R+19.0✓ Dennis Riddell (R)59.5%
Eric Henry (D)40.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
49,627 two-party votes · R+14.0 · R+18.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.0%
Joe Biden (D)43.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
38,129 two-party votes · R+14.8 · R+17.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.6%