Democratic
North Carolina › North Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina House District 43
Wheatley is clearly favored to win: Wheatley wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Ackles (D)
18%
chance of winning
Wheatley (R)
82%
- Average margin
- R+6.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+3
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Wheatley is favored to win: Wheatley wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Ackles (D)
26%
chance of winning
Wheatley (R)
74%
- Average margin
- R+6.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to D+7
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Diane Wheatley
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Carolina state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.49 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.53 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.53 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 87,286
- People per km²
- 73
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 29%
- White, no degree
- 41%of adults
- White 54%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 26%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
43,175 votes · R+14.7✓ Diane Wheatley (R)57.3%
Janene (Dublin) Ackles (D)42.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
43,796 two-party votes · R+12.7 · R+11.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.3%
Kamala Harris (D)43.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
26,167 votes · R+10.0✓ Diane Wheatley (R)55.0%
Elmer Floyd (D)45.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
78,801 votes · R+3.6✓ Diane Wheatley (R)51.8%
Kimberly Hardy (D)48.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
43,195 two-party votes · R+12.5 · R+17.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.2%
Joe Biden (D)43.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
35,499 two-party votes · R+13.0 · R+15.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)43.5%
Also on the ballot in North Carolina
Neighboring districts
HD-6Tony SpearsJoe Pike97%Rep.94%Rep. HD-22Jimmy MelvinWellie Jackson98%Rep.97%Rep. HD-42Mike Colvin—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-44Charles SmithJackie Weyhenmeyer>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-45Frances Jackson—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-46Brittany NewtonBrenden Jones>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-53Kevin ThurmanHoward Penny Jr.99%Rep.98%Rep.