Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia House District 46
Carson is favored to win: Carson wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Walker wins Nov 3
18%
Runoff Dec 1
17%
Carson wins Nov 3
65%
Including the runoff: Walker 26% · Carson 74% to win the seat. In a runoff, Carson wins 52% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+4.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (41% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Walker wins Nov 3
33%
Runoff Dec 1
16%
Carson wins Nov 3
51%
Including the runoff: Walker 41% · Carson 59% to win the seat. In a runoff, Carson wins 51% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+2.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Dumont Walker
RepublicanIncumbent
John Carson
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.84 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.25 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -6.25 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 63,903
- People per km²
- 1,003
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 65%
- White, no degree
- 24%of adults
- White 73%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 6%
- Asian 7%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
37,149 votes · R+17.8✓ John Carson (R)58.9%
Micheal Garza (D)41.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
37,293 two-party votes · R+8.6 · R+7.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.3%
Kamala Harris (D)45.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
29,977 votes · R+19.6✓ John Carson (R)59.8%
Micheal Garza (D)40.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
35,327 votes · R+22.9✓ John Carson (R)61.5%
Caroline L Holko (D)38.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
36,170 two-party votes · R+10.1 · R+14.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.1%
Joe Biden (D)44.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
29,519 two-party votes · R+24.5 · R+26.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.7%
Also on the ballot in Georgia
Neighboring districts
HD-21Anthony AraguesBrad Thomas>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-44Danielle BellDon ParsonsFlip riskRunoff 21%62%Rep.60%Rep. HD-45Michelle SchreinerSharon CooperFlip riskD flipRunoff 21%51%Dem.62%Dem. HD-47Lindsay DefrancoJack MillerRunoff 15%80%Rep.74%Rep. HD-49Teresa LinChuck MartinFlip riskFlip riskRunoff 21%55%Rep.55%Dem.