Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia House District 105
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (82%).
Mughal is clearly favored to win: Mughal wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Mughal wins Nov 3
75%
Runoff Dec 1
14%
Donatucci wins Nov 3
11%
Including the runoff: Mughal 82% · Donatucci 18% to win the seat. In a runoff, Mughal wins 53% of the time.
- Average margin
- D+6.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (77%).
Mughal is favored to win: Mughal wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Mughal wins Nov 3
71%
Runoff Dec 1
12%
Donatucci wins Nov 3
17%
Including the runoff: Mughal 77% · Donatucci 23% to win the seat. In a runoff, Mughal wins 52% of the time.
- Average margin
- D+7.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Farooq Mughal
RepublicanIncumbent
Sandy Donatucci
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.47 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.21 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.21 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 60,774
- People per km²
- 712
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 42%
- White, no degree
- 24%of adults
- White 39%
- Hispanic 21%
- Black 24%
- Asian 11%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
30,204 votes · R+0.3✓ Sandy Donatucci (R)50.1%
Farooq Mughal (D)49.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
30,659 two-party votes · D+2.7 · D+4.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.3%
Donald Trump (R)48.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
20,309 votes · D+3.5✓ Farooq Mughal (D)51.7%
Sandy Donatucci (R)48.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
31,912 votes · D+24.5✓ Donna McLeod (D)62.3%
Eric Dierks (R)37.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
29,252 two-party votes · D+0.3 · R+4.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.2%
Donald Trump (R)49.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
23,042 two-party votes · R+17.0 · R+19.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.5%