Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia House District 121
Flip risk: Democratic-held seat, a toss-up (42% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Gisler wins Nov 3
48%
Runoff Dec 1
21%
Guest wins Nov 3
31%
Including the runoff: Gisler 58% · Guest 42% to win the seat. In a runoff, Gisler wins 50% of the time.
- Average margin
- D+1.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Democratic-held seat, Republicans favored (65%).
Guest is favored to win: Guest wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Gisler wins Nov 3
27%
Runoff Dec 1
16%
Guest wins Nov 3
57%
Including the runoff: Gisler 35% · Guest 65% to win the seat. In a runoff, Guest wins 51% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+3.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Eric Gisler
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Mack Guest
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.49 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -10.78 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 65,044
- People per km²
- 127
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 56%
- White, no degree
- 30%of adults
- White 72%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 11%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2025 special
11,549 votes · D+1.7✓ Eric Gisler (D)50.9%
Mack "Dutch" Guest IV (R)49.1%
2024
32,331 votes · R+22.3✓ Marcus A Wiedower (R)61.1%
Eric Martin Gisler (D)38.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
32,877 two-party votes · R+11.8 · R+10.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.9%
Kamala Harris (D)44.1%
2022 Earlier district lines
26,317 votes · R+20.8✓ Marcus A Wiedower (R)60.4%
Jeff Auerbach (D)39.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
36,685 two-party votes · R+0.3 · R+4.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.1%
Joe Biden (D)49.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
24,457 two-party votes · R+11.5 · R+13.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.3%
Also on the ballot in Georgia
Neighboring districts
HD-112Lisa MariaBruce Williamson>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-114Michael CawBrett Mauldin>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-119Catherine MorrisHolt Persinger>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-120Suzanna KaratassosGary BlackRunoff 14%83%Rep.75%Rep. HD-122Spencer FryeCarol Hubbard>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-124Melanie MillerTrey RhodesRunoff 1%99%Rep.97%Rep.