Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia State Senate District 1
Watson is very likely to win: Watson wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Foreman wins Nov 3
3%
Runoff Dec 1
4%
Watson wins Nov 3
93%
Including the runoff: Foreman 5% · Watson 95% to win the seat. In a runoff, Watson wins 55% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+13.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to R+4
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Watson is clearly favored to win: Watson wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Foreman wins Nov 3
12%
Runoff Dec 1
10%
Watson wins Nov 3
77%
Including the runoff: Foreman 17% · Watson 83% to win the seat. In a runoff, Watson wins 51% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+9.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Corey Foreman
RepublicanIncumbent
Ben Watson
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.72 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -40 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+14: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 199,266
- People per km²
- 51
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 57%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 24%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
76,991 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Ben Watson (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
96,561 two-party votes · R+13.8 · R+12.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.9%
Kamala Harris (D)43.1%
2022 Earlier district lines
70,186 votes · R+22.8✓ Ben Watson (R)61.4%
James Jones (D)38.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
72,192 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Ben Watson (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
86,959 two-party votes · R+13.2 · R+17.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.6%
Joe Biden (D)43.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
67,167 two-party votes · R+20.3 · R+22.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.8%