Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia State Senate District 56
Albers is clearly favored to win: Albers wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Thompson wins Nov 3
6%
Runoff Dec 1
8%
Albers wins Nov 3
86%
Including the runoff: Thompson 10% · Albers 90% to win the seat. In a runoff, Albers wins 53% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+10.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to Even
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Albers is favored to win: Albers wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Thompson wins Nov 3
21%
Runoff Dec 1
14%
Albers wins Nov 3
65%
Including the runoff: Thompson 28% · Albers 72% to win the seat. In a runoff, Albers wins 51% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+5.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to D+7
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Patrick Thompson
RepublicanIncumbent
John Albers
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -3.99 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -7.39 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -7.39 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 184,276
- People per km²
- 751
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 62%
- White, no degree
- 28%of adults
- White 75%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 6%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
118,226 votes · R+22.5✓ John Albers (R)61.2%
Jd Jordan (D)38.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
118,570 two-party votes · R+12.5 · R+11.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.2%
Kamala Harris (D)43.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
94,277 votes · R+23.3✓ John Albers (R)61.6%
Patrick Thompson (D)38.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
100,760 votes · R+2.2✓ John Albers (R)51.1%
Sarah Beeson (D)48.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
115,459 two-party votes · R+12.5 · R+17.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.3%
Joe Biden (D)43.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
90,359 two-party votes · R+27.2 · R+29.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)36.4%