Democratic
South Carolina › South Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina House District 19
Haddon is very likely to win: Haddon wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Smith (D)
2%
chance of winning
Haddon (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+16.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+7
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Haddon is clearly favored to win: Haddon wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Smith (D)
9%
chance of winning
Haddon (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+12.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Patrick B Haddon
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.03 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -39.08 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+18: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 39,518
- People per km²
- 502
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 62%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 14%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
11,898 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Patrick Haddon (R)98.0%
Write-In (—)2.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
15,361 two-party votes · R+19.0 · R+17.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.5%
Kamala Harris (D)40.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
8,134 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Patrick Haddon (R)96.8%
Write-In (—)3.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
15,997 votes · R+22.2✓ Patrick B Haddon (R)61.1%
Jevarus Howard (D)38.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
15,927 two-party votes · R+16.5 · R+21.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.2%
Joe Biden (D)41.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
12,369 two-party votes · R+25.7 · R+27.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.2%