DemocraticIncumbent
South Carolina › South Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina House District 93
Govan is very likely to win: Govan wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Govan (D)
97%
chance of winning
Morris (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+14.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Govan is clearly favored to win: Govan wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Govan (D)
87%
chance of winning
Morris (R)
13%
- Average margin
- D+11.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Alex Morris
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.35 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.81 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.81 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 46,837
- People per km²
- 27
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 21%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 44%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 49%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 2%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
19,670 votes · D+5.3✓ Jerry Govan (D)51.6%
Krista Hassell (R)46.4%
Harold Geddings (OTH)1.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
20,223 two-party votes · D+4.6 · D+6.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.3%
Donald Trump (R)47.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
13,415 votes · D+21.7✓ Russell L Ott (D)60.8%
Jim Ulmer (R)39.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
14,297 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Russell L Ott (D)96.7%
Writein (—)3.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
28,082 two-party votes · D+10.4 · D+5.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.2%
Donald Trump (R)44.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
19,134 two-party votes · D+14.2 · D+12.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)57.1%
Donald Trump (R)42.9%
Also on the ballot in South Carolina
Neighboring districts
HD-64Michele DemeryFawn PedalinoFlip risk65%Rep.52%Dem. HD-70Robert Reese—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-72Seth RoseDixie Kvatek>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-88Jeremy JonesJohn Lastinger>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-89Joe MadgeMicah Caskey86%Rep.75%Rep. HD-90Justin Bamberg—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-91Lonnie HoseyDaniel Alexander89%Dem.74%Dem. HD-95Gilda Cobb-Hunter—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-96Vivian ElstonHunter Hackett>99%Rep.>99%Rep.