Democratic
South Carolina › South Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina House District 33
Moore is very likely to win: Moore wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Turregano (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Moore (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+30.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+40 to R+21
- Partisan lean
- R+37
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Moore is very likely to win: Moore wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Turregano (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Moore (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+32.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+45 to R+20
- Partisan lean
- R+37
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Travis Moore
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.34 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.6 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -4.6 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+37: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 39,687
- People per km²
- 61
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 54%of adults
- White 72%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 16%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
20,663 votes · R+44.0✓ Travis A. Moore (R)71.9%
Clemson Turregano (D)27.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
20,856 two-party votes · R+38.2 · R+36.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.1%
Kamala Harris (D)30.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
11,409 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Travis A Moore (R)98.4%
Write-In (—)1.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
16,891 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Travis Moore (R)88.2%
Thomas J Riddle (—)10.7%
Writein (—)1.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
20,484 two-party votes · R+32.7 · R+37.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.4%
Joe Biden (D)33.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
17,008 two-party votes · R+38.6 · R+40.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)30.7%
Also on the ballot in South Carolina
Neighboring districts
HD-14Michanna TateRick Shealy>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-16Lynn RamirezMark N Willis>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-29Marina FrancoDennis Moss>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-31Rosalyn Henderson-Myers—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-32Irene BensonScott Montgomery99%Rep.96%Rep. HD-34Saville WilliamsSarita Edgerton99%Rep.97%Rep. HD-35Tatiana SkipperBill Chumley>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-42Robert Larry WilliamsDoug Gilliam99%Rep.99%Rep.