Democratic
South Carolina › South Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina House District 37
Long is very likely to win: Long wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Sauer-Hart (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Long (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+30.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+40 to R+21
- Partisan lean
- R+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Long is very likely to win: Long wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Sauer-Hart (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Long (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+30.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+43 to R+18
- Partisan lean
- R+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Steven Long
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.93 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -22.3 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -22.3 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+35: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 42,033
- People per km²
- 421
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 22%
- White, no degree
- 49%of adults
- White 63%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 16%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
15,455 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Steven Long (R)98.4%
Write-In (—)1.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
19,085 two-party votes · R+36.2 · R+34.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.1%
Kamala Harris (D)31.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
9,608 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Steven Long (R)97.8%
Write-In (—)2.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
16,176 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Steven W Long (R)97.0%
Writein (—)3.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
17,188 two-party votes · R+31.9 · R+36.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.9%
Joe Biden (D)34.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
14,217 two-party votes · R+39.6 · R+41.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)30.2%