Democratic
South Carolina › South Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina House District 64
Pedalino is favored to win: Pedalino wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Demery (D)
35%
chance of winning
Pedalino (R)
65%
- Average margin
- R+3.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+7
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (52% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Demery (D)
52%
chance of winning
Pedalino (R)
48%
- Average margin
- D+0.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Fawn Pedalino
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.61 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.42 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -4.42 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 46,108
- People per km²
- 19
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 19%
- White, no degree
- 43%of adults
- White 51%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 42%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
19,825 votes · R+11.6✓ Fawn Pedalino (R)55.8%
Quadri Bell (D)44.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
20,017 two-party votes · R+7.6 · R+6.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.8%
Kamala Harris (D)46.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
14,148 votes · R+10.5✓ Fawn Pedalino (R)55.2%
Kimberly O Johnson (D)44.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
17,393 votes · D+8.7✓ Kimberly O Johnson (D)54.3%
Cindy Risher (R)45.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
20,926 two-party votes · D+4.3 · R+0.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.2%
Donald Trump (R)47.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
19,577 two-party votes · D+7.6 · D+5.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)53.8%
Donald Trump (R)46.2%
Also on the ballot in South Carolina
Neighboring districts
HD-50Keishan M ScottWilliam Oden97%Dem.90%Dem. HD-51David Weeks—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-60Adrian Peguese CarterPhillip Lowe>99%Rep.98%Rep. HD-67Lisa DaveyMurrell Smith99%Rep.92%Rep. HD-70Robert Reese—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-93Jerry GovanAlex Morris97%Dem.87%Dem. HD-95Gilda Cobb-Hunter—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-101Roger K. KirbyArnie Borowsky>99%Dem.98%Dem. HD-102Montez AikenHarriet HolmanFlip riskD flip56%Dem.62%Dem.