DemocraticIncumbent
South Carolina › South Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina House District 72
Rose is very likely to win: Rose wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Rose (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Kvatek (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+51.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+41 to D+62
- Partisan lean
- D+45
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Rose is very likely to win: Rose wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Rose (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Kvatek (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+50.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+37 to D+64
- Partisan lean
- D+45
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Dixie Kvatek
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.86 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 17.72 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 17.72 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+45: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 35,194
- People per km²
- 631
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 51%
- White, no degree
- 17%of adults
- White 57%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 28%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
8,369 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Seth Rose (D)99.0%
Write-In (—)1.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
9,838 two-party votes · D+42.5 · D+44.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)71.2%
Donald Trump (R)28.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
5,841 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Seth Rose (D)98.5%
Write-In (—)1.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
10,115 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Seth Rose (D)98.2%
Writein (—)1.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
12,336 two-party votes · D+51.9 · D+47.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)75.9%
Donald Trump (R)24.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
13,114 two-party votes · D+52.3 · D+50.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)76.2%
Donald Trump (R)23.8%
Also on the ballot in South Carolina
Neighboring districts
HD-69Emery K ChaplinChris Wooten>99%Rep.98%Rep. HD-70Robert Reese—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-73Chris R. HartAllen Robertson>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-74J Todd RutherfordCollin Shelton>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-75Heather BauerTracy Robins98%Dem.92%Dem. HD-89Joe MadgeMicah Caskey86%Rep.75%Rep. HD-93Jerry GovanAlex Morris97%Dem.87%Dem.