Democratic
South Carolina › South Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina House District 116
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (79%).
Middleton is favored to win: Middleton wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Middleton (D)
79%
chance of winning
Teeple (R)
21%
- Average margin
- D+5.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (76%).
Middleton is favored to win: Middleton wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Middleton (D)
76%
chance of winning
Teeple (R)
24%
- Average margin
- D+6.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
James E Teeple
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.12 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.77 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.77 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 44,250
- People per km²
- 40
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 47%
- White, no degree
- 27%of adults
- White 61%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 26%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
24,571 votes · R+2.4✓ James Teeple (R)51.2%
Charlie Murray (D)48.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
24,544 two-party votes · R+0.6 · D+0.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.3%
Kamala Harris (D)49.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
17,033 votes · R+3.4✓ Matt Leber (R)51.7%
Chardale Murray (D)48.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
24,078 votes · D+1.7✓ Chardale Murray (D)50.8%
Carroll Oneal (R)49.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
28,024 two-party votes · D+5.6 · D+1.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.8%
Donald Trump (R)47.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
17,484 two-party votes · D+1.8 · R+0.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.9%
Donald Trump (R)49.1%