Democratic
South Carolina › South Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina House District 21
Mitchell is very likely to win: Mitchell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Reaves (D)
1%
chance of winning
Mitchell (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+21.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+31 to R+12
- Partisan lean
- R+28
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Mitchell is very likely to win: Mitchell wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Reaves (D)
2%
chance of winning
Mitchell (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+21.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+35 to R+9
- Partisan lean
- R+28
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Dianne Mitchell
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.92 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -28.99 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+28: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 55,967
- People per km²
- 884
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 56%
- White, no degree
- 29%of adults
- White 72%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 7%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2025 special
2,124 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Dianne Mitchell (R)70.3%
Write-ins (—)29.7%
2024
18,503 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Bobby J. Cox (R)98.3%
Write-In (—)1.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
22,995 two-party votes · R+29.5 · R+28.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.8%
Kamala Harris (D)35.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
13,430 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Bobby Cox (R)97.8%
Write-In (—)2.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
32,577 two-party votes · R+25.1 · R+29.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.6%
Joe Biden (D)37.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
18,682 two-party votes · R+36.3 · R+38.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)31.9%