Democratic
South Carolina › South Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina House District 8
Chapman is very likely to win: Chapman wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Carson (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Chapman (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+33.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+44 to R+25
- Partisan lean
- R+40
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Chapman is very likely to win: Chapman wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Carson (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Chapman (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+35.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+49 to R+23
- Partisan lean
- R+40
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Don Chapman
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.37 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -17.12 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -17.12 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+40: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 40,257
- People per km²
- 112
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 57%of adults
- White 75%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 17%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
16,471 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Don Chapman (R)86.9%
Jackie Todd (OTH)12.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
19,298 two-party votes · R+42.1 · R+40.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.0%
Kamala Harris (D)29.0%
2022 Earlier district lines
12,720 votes · R+49.6✓ Don Chapman (R)73.1%
Ernest E Mackins (D)24.6%
Jackie Todd (OTH)2.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
17,465 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jonathon Hill (R)80.7%
Jackie Todd (—)18.7%
Writein (—)0.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
19,190 two-party votes · R+35.0 · R+39.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.5%
Joe Biden (D)32.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
30,926 two-party votes · R+36.2 · R+38.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)31.9%
Also on the ballot in South Carolina
Neighboring districts
HD-2Candace SchuttAdam Lewis Duncan>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-3Claiborne LinvillPhillip Bowers99%Rep.98%Rep. HD-6Jennifer BachnerApril Cromer>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-7Elizabeth W CooleyLee Gilreath>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-9Johnny EstrichBlake Sanders>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-11Jessica BeasleyCraig A. Gagnon>99%Rep.>99%Rep.