DemocraticIncumbent
South Carolina › South Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina House District 82
Clyburn is clearly favored to win: Clyburn wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Clyburn (D)
93%
chance of winning
Spurgeon (R)
7%
- Average margin
- D+12.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+2 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Clyburn is favored to win: Clyburn wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Clyburn (D)
76%
chance of winning
Spurgeon (R)
24%
- Average margin
- D+6.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Suzy Spurgeon
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.1 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 8.85 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 8.85 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 41,918
- People per km²
- 33
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 22%
- White, no degree
- 37%of adults
- White 47%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 40%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
16,665 votes · D+7.8✓ William Bill Clyburn (D)53.9%
Suzanne Suzy Spurgeon (R)46.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
15,966 two-party votes · R+1.1 · D+0.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.5%
Kamala Harris (D)49.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
6,939 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ William Clyburn (D)94.0%
Write-In (—)6.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
11,930 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ William Bill Clyburn (D)94.0%
Writein (—)6.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
16,865 two-party votes · D+9.5 · D+4.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.7%
Donald Trump (R)45.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
14,740 two-party votes · D+12.8 · D+10.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)56.4%
Donald Trump (R)43.6%
Also on the ballot in South Carolina
Neighboring districts
HD-12Jumelle BrooksDaniel GibsonFlip riskD flip59%Dem.64%Dem. HD-13C Rauch WiseJohn R. McCravy III>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-39Sherman LottCal Forrest>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-81Pete SwalesCharles Hartz99%Rep.98%Rep. HD-83Jason PayneBill Hixon>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-84Darnell HolstonMelissa Oremus>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-86Malcolm GreenTommy Paradise>99%Rep.99%Rep.