Democratic
South Carolina › South Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina House District 89
Caskey is clearly favored to win: Caskey wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Madge (D)
14%
chance of winning
Caskey (R)
86%
- Average margin
- R+7.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+2
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Caskey is favored to win: Caskey wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Madge (D)
25%
chance of winning
Caskey (R)
75%
- Average margin
- R+6.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Micah Caskey
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.24 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.06 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -6.06 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 36,236
- People per km²
- 435
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 60%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 21%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
16,862 votes · R+20.6✓ Micah Caskey (R)60.2%
Wayne Borders (D)39.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
17,253 two-party votes · R+12.3 · R+10.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.2%
Kamala Harris (D)43.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
9,061 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Micah Caskey (R)96.8%
Write-In (—)3.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
13,183 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Micah Caskey (R)96.0%
Writein (—)4.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
31,658 two-party votes · R+11.2 · R+15.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.6%
Joe Biden (D)44.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
15,613 two-party votes · R+18.6 · R+20.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.7%