Democratic
South Carolina › South Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina House District 12
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (59% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Brooks (D)
59%
chance of winning
Gibson (R)
41%
- Average margin
- D+1.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (64%).
Brooks is favored to win: Brooks wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Brooks (D)
64%
chance of winning
Gibson (R)
36%
- Average margin
- D+3.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Daniel Gibson
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.64 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.73 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.73 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 31,882
- People per km²
- 24
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 16%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 44%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 43%
- Other / multiracial 2%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
15,787 votes · R+4.6✓ Daniel Gibson (R)52.3%
Jumelle Brooks (D)47.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
16,433 two-party votes · R+4.2 · R+2.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.1%
Kamala Harris (D)47.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
11,423 votes · R+5.7✓ Daniel Gibson (R)52.8%
Anne Parks (D)47.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
14,523 votes · D+18.5✓ Anne Parks (D)58.2%
James Pearman (R)40.0%
Robbie Bryant (—)1.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
17,474 two-party votes · D+7.4 · D+2.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.7%
Donald Trump (R)46.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
16,196 two-party votes · D+6.1 · D+3.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)53.1%
Donald Trump (R)46.9%