DemocraticIncumbent
South Carolina › South Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina House District 91
Hosey is clearly favored to win: Hosey wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Hosey (D)
89%
chance of winning
Alexander (R)
11%
- Average margin
- D+9.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Hosey is favored to win: Hosey wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Hosey (D)
74%
chance of winning
Alexander (R)
26%
- Average margin
- D+6.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Daniel Alexander
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.32 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.45 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 4.45 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 42,927
- People per km²
- 13
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 17%
- White, no degree
- 38%of adults
- White 43%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 50%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
17,974 votes · D+3.3✓ Lonnie Hosey (D)51.6%
Ben Kinlaw (R)48.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
18,384 two-party votes · R+1.1 · D+0.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.5%
Kamala Harris (D)49.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
7,789 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Lonnie Hosey (D)97.1%
Write-In (—)2.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
12,281 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Lonnie Hosey (D)97.9%
Writein (—)2.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
20,365 two-party votes · D+8.7 · D+4.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.3%
Donald Trump (R)45.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
23,540 two-party votes · D+11.8 · D+9.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.9%
Donald Trump (R)44.1%