Democratic
South Carolina › South Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina House District 39
Forrest is very likely to win: Forrest wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Lott (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Forrest (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+42.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+52 to R+33
- Partisan lean
- R+52
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Forrest is very likely to win: Forrest wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Lott (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Forrest (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+47.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+60 to R+36
- Partisan lean
- R+52
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Cal Forrest
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.43 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.46 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -5.46 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+52: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 43,375
- People per km²
- 32
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 21%
- White, no degree
- 57%of adults
- White 70%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 15%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
17,708 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Cal Forrest (R)99.2%
Write-In (—)0.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
20,438 two-party votes · R+53.5 · R+52.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)76.8%
Kamala Harris (D)23.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
12,535 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Cal Forrest (R)99.1%
Write-In (—)0.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
15,212 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Cal Forrest (R)98.6%
Writein (—)1.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
19,476 two-party votes · R+47.2 · R+51.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)73.6%
Joe Biden (D)26.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
17,245 two-party votes · R+47.4 · R+49.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)73.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)26.3%
Also on the ballot in South Carolina
Neighboring districts
HD-13C Rauch WiseJohn R. McCravy III>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-40Engle ThompsonJoe White>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-82William Bill ClyburnSuzy Spurgeon93%Dem.76%Dem. HD-85Steven J Asbill JrJay Kilmartin99%Rep.96%Rep. HD-86Malcolm GreenTommy Paradise>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-87Reid BeamanPaula Rawl Calhoon>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-96Vivian ElstonHunter Hackett>99%Rep.>99%Rep.