Democratic
South Carolina › South Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina House District 123
Bradley is clearly favored to win: Bradley wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Shippy (D)
14%
chance of winning
Bradley (R)
86%
- Average margin
- R+7.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+18 to D+2
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Bradley is favored to win: Bradley wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Shippy (D)
24%
chance of winning
Bradley (R)
76%
- Average margin
- R+6.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Jeff Bradley
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.29 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.46 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -5.46 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 39,185
- People per km²
- 54
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 56%
- White, no degree
- 27%of adults
- White 72%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 11%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
25,242 votes · R+19.8✓ Jeff Bradley (R)59.9%
Lisette Cifaldi (D)40.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
25,069 two-party votes · R+12.6 · R+11.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.3%
Kamala Harris (D)43.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
14,613 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jeff Bradley (R)92.4%
Write-In (—)7.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
23,379 votes · R+25.1✓ Jeff Bradley (R)62.5%
Christine Devries (D)37.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
26,291 two-party votes · R+9.5 · R+14.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.7%
Joe Biden (D)45.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
44,857 two-party votes · R+15.4 · R+17.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.3%