DemocraticIncumbent
South Carolina › South Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina House District 41
McDaniel is very likely to win: McDaniel wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
McDaniel (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Czentye (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+27.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+17 to D+39
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
McDaniel is very likely to win: McDaniel wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
McDaniel (D)
97%
chance of winning
Czentye (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+20.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+34
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Tibi Czentye
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.1 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 40 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 36,818
- People per km²
- 16
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 18%
- White, no degree
- 34%of adults
- White 43%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 51%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
15,465 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Annie E. McDaniel (D)98.1%
Write-In (—)1.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
19,432 two-party votes · D+14.0 · D+15.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.0%
Donald Trump (R)43.0%
2022 Earlier district lines
14,108 votes · D+14.7✓ Annie E McDaniel (D)57.3%
Jennifer Brecheisen (R)42.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
19,411 votes · D+29.7✓ Annie E McDaniel (D)64.8%
Jennifer Brecheisen (R)35.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
21,975 two-party votes · D+19.9 · D+15.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)59.9%
Donald Trump (R)40.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
19,893 two-party votes · D+18.3 · D+16.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)59.1%
Donald Trump (R)40.9%
Also on the ballot in South Carolina
Neighboring districts
HD-29Marina FrancoDennis Moss>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-40Engle ThompsonJoe White>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-42Robert Larry WilliamsDoug Gilliam99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-43Alex ClarkRandy Ligon>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-45Nicole VentourBrandon Newton99%Rep.96%Rep. HD-52Malcolm Taylor—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-71Julie ZimmermanNathan Ballentine98%Rep.93%Rep. HD-73Chris R. HartAllen Robertson>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-77Kambrell Houston Garvin—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-79Hamilton R. Grant—>99%Dem.>99%Dem.