Democratic
South Carolina › South Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina House District 67
Smith is very likely to win: Smith wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Davey (D)
1%
chance of winning
Smith (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+20.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+32 to R+10
- Partisan lean
- R+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Smith is clearly favored to win: Smith wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Davey (D)
8%
chance of winning
Smith (R)
92%
- Average margin
- R+13.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Murrell Smith
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -3.37 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -38.78 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+19: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 37,824
- People per km²
- 157
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 56%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 30%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
13,904 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Murrell Smith (R)98.4%
Write-In (—)1.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
18,881 two-party votes · R+19.2 · R+17.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.6%
Kamala Harris (D)40.4%
2022 Earlier district lines
9,862 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Murrell Smith (R)98.4%
Write-In (—)1.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
14,224 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Murrell Smith (R)97.3%
Writein (—)2.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
19,910 two-party votes · R+17.0 · R+21.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.5%
Joe Biden (D)41.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
18,185 two-party votes · R+22.6 · R+24.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.7%