Democratic
South Carolina › South Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina House District 57
Atkinson is favored to win: Atkinson wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Ford (D)
30%
chance of winning
Atkinson (R)
70%
- Average margin
- R+3.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Atkinson is favored to win: Atkinson wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Ford (D)
28%
chance of winning
Atkinson (R)
72%
- Average margin
- R+5.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to D+7
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Lucas Atkinson
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.79 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 30.97 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 31,427
- People per km²
- 17
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 13%
- White, no degree
- 49%of adults
- White 55%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 40%
- Other / multiracial 2%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
18,592 votes · D+17.5✓ Lucas Atkinson (D)58.6%
Kevin Taylor Coleridge (R)41.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
18,198 two-party votes · R+12.8 · R+11.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.4%
Kamala Harris (D)43.6%
2022 Earlier district lines
8,655 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Lucas Atkinson (D)98.5%
Write-In (—)1.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
13,786 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Lucas Atkinson (D)97.1%
Writein (—)2.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
21,002 two-party votes · R+5.1 · R+9.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.6%
Joe Biden (D)47.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
19,470 two-party votes · R+1.4 · R+3.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.3%
Also on the ballot in South Carolina
Neighboring districts
HD-55Jackie Hayes—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-58Sha-Ron E JonesJeff Johnson>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-59Terry Alexander—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-60Adrian Peguese CarterPhillip Lowe>99%Rep.98%Rep. HD-101Roger K. KirbyArnie Borowsky>99%Dem.98%Dem. HD-103Carl Anderson—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-105David WilsonKevin Hardee>99%Rep.>99%Rep.