Democratic
South Carolina › South Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina House District 20
Frank is very likely to win: Frank wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Elbertse (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Frank (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+24.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+34 to R+15
- Partisan lean
- R+33
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Frank is very likely to win: Frank wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Elbertse (D)
1%
chance of winning
Frank (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+26.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+40 to R+15
- Partisan lean
- R+33
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Stephen D Frank
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.19 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.19 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+33: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 43,758
- People per km²
- 691
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 49%
- White, no degree
- 34%of adults
- White 69%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 9%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
19,732 votes · R+36.5✓ Stephen Frank (R)68.1%
Stephen Dreyfus (D)31.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
19,310 two-party votes · R+33.6 · R+32.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.8%
Kamala Harris (D)33.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
11,674 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Adam Morgan (R)97.8%
Write-In (—)2.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
21,663 votes · R+35.2✓ Adam Morgan (R)67.5%
Stephen Dreyfus (D)32.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
25,671 two-party votes · R+30.5 · R+35.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.2%
Joe Biden (D)34.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
17,138 two-party votes · R+39.2 · R+41.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)30.4%