DemocraticIncumbent
South Carolina › South Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina House District 50
Scott is very likely to win: Scott wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Scott (D)
97%
chance of winning
Oden (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+16.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+6 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Scott is clearly favored to win: Scott wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Scott (D)
90%
chance of winning
Oden (R)
10%
- Average margin
- D+13.1
- 80% of outcomes
- Even to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
William Oden
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.26 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 46,285
- People per km²
- 23
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 18%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 42%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 51%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2025 special
3,675 votes · D+41.3✓ Keishan Scott (D)70.6%
Bill Oden (R)29.3%
2024
13,771 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Will Wheeler (D)98.1%
Write-In (—)1.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
18,952 two-party votes · D+5.4 · D+6.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.7%
Donald Trump (R)47.3%
2022 Earlier district lines
13,031 votes · D+20.1✓ Will Wheeler (D)60.0%
Marvin Jones (R)39.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
20,488 two-party votes · D+16.1 · D+11.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)58.1%
Donald Trump (R)41.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
19,102 two-party votes · D+17.1 · D+14.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)58.6%
Donald Trump (R)41.4%
Also on the ballot in South Carolina
Neighboring districts
HD-51David Weeks—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-60Adrian Peguese CarterPhillip Lowe>99%Rep.98%Rep. HD-62Robert Williams—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-64Michele DemeryFawn PedalinoFlip risk65%Rep.52%Dem. HD-65Tanisha BaskinCody Mitchell>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-67Lisa DaveyMurrell Smith99%Rep.92%Rep. HD-70Robert Reese—>99%Dem.>99%Dem.