Democratic
South Carolina › South Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina House District 35
Chumley is very likely to win: Chumley wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Skipper (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Chumley (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+30.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+40 to R+21
- Partisan lean
- R+36
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Chumley is very likely to win: Chumley wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Skipper (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Chumley (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+30.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+43 to R+18
- Partisan lean
- R+36
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Bill Chumley
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.31 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -21.87 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -21.87 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+36: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 33,870
- People per km²
- 131
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 40%
- White, no degree
- 45%of adults
- White 73%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 10%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
19,516 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Bill Chumley (R)98.1%
Write-In (—)1.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
24,829 two-party votes · R+36.4 · R+34.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.2%
Kamala Harris (D)31.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
12,537 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Bill Chumley (R)98.0%
Write-In (—)2.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
28,397 votes · R+36.1✓ Bill Chumley (R)68.0%
Helen Pendarvis (D)31.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
26,338 two-party votes · R+33.0 · R+37.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.5%
Joe Biden (D)33.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
18,659 two-party votes · R+42.9 · R+45.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)28.5%
Also on the ballot in South Carolina
Neighboring districts
HD-14Michanna TateRick Shealy>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-16Lynn RamirezMark N Willis>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-21Dexter ReavesDianne Mitchell99%Rep.98%Rep. HD-24Caroline AvingerBruce Bannister77%Rep.60%Rep. HD-27John MacCarthyDavid Vaughan90%Rep.85%Rep. HD-33Clemson G TurreganoTravis Moore>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-34Saville WilliamsSarita Edgerton99%Rep.97%Rep. HD-36Virginia McLeanRob Harris>99%Rep.>99%Rep.