Democratic
South Carolina › South Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina House District 115
Uricchio is clearly favored to win: Uricchio wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Uricchio (D)
94%
chance of winning
Garmon (R)
6%
- Average margin
- D+11.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+2 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Uricchio is clearly favored to win: Uricchio wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Uricchio (D)
87%
chance of winning
Garmon (R)
13%
- Average margin
- D+11.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Johnnie Garmon
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.93 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.33 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 31,338
- People per km²
- 55
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 62%
- White, no degree
- 28%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 10%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 2%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
26,261 votes · D+3.8✓ Spencer Wetmore (D)51.9%
J. Warren Sloane (R)48.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
25,875 two-party votes · D+4.8 · D+6.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.4%
Donald Trump (R)47.6%
2022 Earlier district lines
20,008 votes · D+7.6✓ Spencer Wetmore (D)53.8%
Carroll O'Neal (R)46.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
26,367 votes · D+1.6✓ Spencer Wetmore (D)50.8%
Josh Stokes (R)49.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
36,714 two-party votes · D+10.0 · D+5.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.0%
Donald Trump (R)45.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
20,107 two-party votes · R+1.3 · R+3.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.4%