Democratic
Allison Russo
Former minority leader of the Ohio House of Representatives (2022–2025) and nominee for Ohio's 15th congressional district in 2021
- Experience
- State legislature
Ohio › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio Secretary of State
Sprague is favored to win: Sprague wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.
Russo (D)
39%
chance of winning
Sprague (R)
61%
- Average margin
- R+1.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+7
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (53% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Russo (D)
53%
chance of winning
Sprague (R)
47%
- Average margin
- D+0.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Robert Sprague
Ohio state treasurer (2019–present) (previously ran for governor)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Ohio state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.89 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The state
Lean R+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 11,810,293
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 53%of adults
- White 76%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 12%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
5,713,815 two-party votes · R+11.3 · R+9.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.7%
Kamala Harris (D)44.3%
2022
4,122,959 votes · R+19.8✓ Frank Larose (R)59.3%
Chelsea Clark (D)39.7%
Terpsehore Tore Maras (NPA)1.0%
2020 President Vote in this state
5,833,999 two-party votes · R+8.2 · R+12.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.1%
Joe Biden (D)45.9%
2018
4,369,877 votes · R+3.8✓ Frank Larose (R)50.7%
Kathleen Clyde (D)47.0%
Dustin R Nanna (L)2.4%
2016 President Vote in this state
5,235,169 two-party votes · R+8.5 · R+10.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.7%