Democratic
J. Noah Spinner
Lawyer
- Experience
- No elected office
Ohio › Ohio House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio House District 31
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (85%).
Spinner is clearly favored to win: Spinner wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Spinner (D)
85%
chance of winning
Kahoe (R)
15%
- Average margin
- D+7.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (76%).
Spinner is favored to win: Spinner wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Spinner (D)
76%
chance of winning
Kahoe (R)
24%
- Average margin
- D+6.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Mike Kahoe
Member of the Revere Local Schools Board of Education (2019–present)
- Experience
- Local office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Ohio state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.03 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.95 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 129,783
- People per km²
- 333
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 40%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 6%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
64,460 votes · R+6.0✓ Bill Roemer (R)53.0%
A J Harris (D)47.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
67,003 two-party votes · R+0.9 · D+0.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.4%
Kamala Harris (D)49.6%
2022 Earlier district lines
55,591 votes · R+4.1✓ Bill Roemer (R)52.1%
Rita Darrow (D)47.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
42,180 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Brigid Kelly (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
66,940 two-party votes · D+0.9 · R+3.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.4%
Donald Trump (R)49.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
57,780 two-party votes · R+2.6 · R+4.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.7%
Also on the ballot in Ohio
Neighboring districts
HD-17Megan CoyMike DovillaFlip riskFlip risk60%Dem.57%Dem. HD-19Nicole SigurdsonEd Hargate>99%Dem.97%Dem. HD-32—Jack Daniels>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-33Veronica SimsNapoleon Rodgers Jr.>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-34Derrick HallCraig Shubert99%Dem.94%Dem. HD-35Samantha SalamonVik SandhuD flipD flip85%Dem.71%Dem. HD-66Heather SampleSean Hutson98%Rep.96%Rep. HD-77Brooke DillonMeredith Craig>99%Rep.>99%Rep.