Democratic
Ohio › Ohio House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio House District 53
Lundy is very likely to win: Lundy wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Lundy (D)
98%
chance of winning
Lacko (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+16.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+7 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Lundy is clearly favored to win: Lundy wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Lundy (D)
87%
chance of winning
Lacko (R)
13%
- Average margin
- D+10.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Bradley Lacko
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Ohio state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.64 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 11.36 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 117,160
- People per km²
- 790
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 65%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 10%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
51,900 votes · D+12.5✓ Joe Miller (D)56.3%
Bradley Lacko (R)43.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
54,899 two-party votes · D+2.8 · D+4.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.4%
Donald Trump (R)48.6%
2022 Earlier district lines
40,789 votes · D+4.2✓ Joe Miller (D)52.1%
Marty Gallagher (R)47.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
53,874 votes · R+36.5✓ Thomas Hall (R)68.2%
Michelle E Novak (D)31.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
55,823 two-party votes · D+6.7 · D+2.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.4%
Donald Trump (R)46.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
48,778 two-party votes · D+10.8 · D+8.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.4%
Donald Trump (R)44.6%