Democratic
Rose Lounsbury
Teacher and Democratic nominee for this district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
Ohio › Ohio House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio House District 36
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (80%).
Lounsbury is favored to win: Lounsbury wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Lounsbury (D)
80%
chance of winning
White (R)
20%
- Average margin
- D+6.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (81%).
Lounsbury is clearly favored to win: Lounsbury wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Lounsbury (D)
81%
chance of winning
White (R)
19%
- Average margin
- D+8.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Andrea White
Incumbent representative (2021–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Ohio state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.21 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.78 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.78 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 129,912
- People per km²
- 1,192
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 79%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 9%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
56,817 votes · R+4.7✓ Andrea White (R)52.4%
Rose Lounsbury (D)47.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
57,389 two-party votes · D+0.9 · D+2.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.4%
Donald Trump (R)49.6%
2022 Earlier district lines
41,401 votes · R+1.1✓ Andrea White (R)50.5%
Addison Caruso (D)49.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
61,735 votes · R+4.6✓ Bob Young (R)52.3%
Matt Shaughnessy (D)47.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
60,093 two-party votes · R+0.2 · R+4.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.1%
Joe Biden (D)49.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
54,196 two-party votes · R+8.3 · R+10.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.9%