DemocraticIncumbent
Sean Brennan
Incumbent representative (2023–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
Ohio › Ohio House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio House District 14
Brennan is very likely to win: Brennan wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Brennan (D)
97%
chance of winning
Morgan (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+15.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Brennan is favored to win: Brennan wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Brennan (D)
77%
chance of winning
Morgan (R)
23%
- Average margin
- D+7.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
David J. Morgan
Candidate for this district in 2022 and 2024 (write-in)
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Ohio state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.78 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 19.76 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 19.76 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 125,238
- People per km²
- 1,742
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 59%of adults
- White 72%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 10%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
46,802 votes · D+16.2✓ Sean Patrick Brennan (D)58.1%
David Morgan (R)41.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
51,548 two-party votes · R+1.5 · Even vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.8%
Kamala Harris (D)49.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
36,460 votes · D+11.2✓ Sean P Brennan (D)55.6%
Jolene B Austin (R)44.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
47,261 votes · D+16.9✓ Bride Rose Sweeney (D)58.4%
Lynn McMahan (R)41.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
54,792 two-party votes · D+0.7 · R+3.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.3%
Donald Trump (R)49.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
49,742 two-party votes · D+3.7 · D+1.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.9%
Donald Trump (R)48.1%