Democratic
John Kulewicz
Upper Arlington city councilor
- Experience
- Local office
Ohio › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio Attorney General
Faber is favored to win: Faber wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.
Kulewicz (D)
39%
chance of winning
Faber (R)
61%
- Average margin
- R+1.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+7
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- 2in our database
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (52% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Kulewicz (D)
52%
chance of winning
Faber (R)
48%
- Average margin
- D+0.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Keith Faber
Ohio state auditor (2019–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Ohio state offices
- +0.9Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+10.4Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.33 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Kulewicz | Faber | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research for Poll sposored by Kulewicz's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 29–Aug 4 | 600 LV | 36 | 32 | D+4 | D+0.7 |
| Tulchin Research for Poll sposored by Kulewicz's campaignD-sponsored | Jun 2–Jun 4 | 600 LV | 34 | 34 | Even | R+5.3 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 4, 2026.
The state
Lean R+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 11,810,293
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 53%of adults
- White 76%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 12%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
5,713,815 two-party votes · R+11.3 · R+9.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.7%
Kamala Harris (D)44.3%
2022
4,132,397 votes · R+20.3✓ Dave Yost (R)60.1%
Jeffrey A Crossman (D)39.9%
2020 President Vote in this state
5,833,999 two-party votes · R+8.2 · R+12.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.1%
Joe Biden (D)45.9%
2018
4,363,129 votes · R+4.3✓ Dave Yost (R)52.2%
Steve Dettelbach (D)47.8%
2016 President Vote in this state
5,235,169 two-party votes · R+8.5 · R+10.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.7%