Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › Connecticut House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut House District 62
FusionFlip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (59% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Becker (D)
59%
chance of winning
Anderson (R)
41%
- Average margin
- D+1.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (68%).
Becker is favored to win: Becker wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Becker (D)
68%
chance of winning
Anderson (R)
32%
- Average margin
- D+4.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Kim Becker
RepublicanIncumbent
Mark Anderson
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Connecticut state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.97 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -5.97 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 23,377
- People per km²
- 59
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 52%
- White, no degree
- 45%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 2%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
15,209 votes · R+7.5✓ Mark W Anderson (R)53.7%
Kim Becker (D)46.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
15,248 two-party votes · D+1.1 · D+2.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.6%
Donald Trump (R)49.4%
2022
12,178 votes · R+10.5✓ Mark Anderson (R)55.3%
Kim Becker (D)44.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
15,326 votes · R+12.4✓ Mark W Anderson (R)56.2%
Audrey Lampert (D)43.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
15,326 two-party votes · D+0.9 · R+3.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.4%
Donald Trump (R)49.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
13,196 two-party votes · R+8.7 · R+10.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.6%