Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › Connecticut House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut House District 81
FusionPoulos is clearly favored to win: Poulos wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Poulos (D)
86%
chance of winning
Wilk (R)
14%
- Average margin
- D+8.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Democratic-held seat, a toss-up (40% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Poulos (D)
60%
chance of winning
Wilk (R)
40%
- Average margin
- D+2.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Chris Poulos
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Timothy Wilk
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Connecticut state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.02 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 18.77 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 18.77 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 25,147
- People per km²
- 766
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 40%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 84%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 2%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
13,856 votes · D+12.0✓ Chris Poulos (D)56.0%
James E Morelli Jr (R)44.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
9,025 two-party votes · R+5.5 · R+4.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.8%
Kamala Harris (D)47.2%
2022
10,593 votes · Even✓ Christopher J Poulos (D)50.0%
Tony Morrison (R)50.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
13,402 votes · R+17.3✓ John Fusco (R)58.6%
Dagmara Scalise (D)41.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
13,897 two-party votes · R+0.4 · R+4.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.2%
Joe Biden (D)49.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
11,705 two-party votes · R+9.7 · R+12.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.1%