Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › Connecticut House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut House District 105
FusionKlarides-Ditria is very likely to win: Klarides-Ditria wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Beaupre (D)
3%
chance of winning
Klarides-Ditria (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+16.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+6
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Klarides-Ditria is clearly favored to win: Klarides-Ditria wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Beaupre (D)
18%
chance of winning
Klarides-Ditria (R)
82%
- Average margin
- R+8.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Josh Beaupre
RepublicanIncumbent
Nicole Klarides-Ditria
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Connecticut state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.35 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -40 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 28,835
- People per km²
- 426
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 42%of adults
- White 63%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 11%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
9,476 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Nicole Klarides-Ditria (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
14,013 two-party votes · R+16.3 · R+14.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.2%
Kamala Harris (D)41.8%
2022
7,000 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Nicole Klarides-Ditria (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
13,402 votes · R+34.3✓ Nicole Klarides-Ditria (R)67.1%
Christopher E Bowen (D)32.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
13,578 two-party votes · R+13.7 · R+18.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.9%
Joe Biden (D)43.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
11,503 two-party votes · R+23.3 · R+25.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.4%