Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › Connecticut House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut House District 70
FusionBronko is favored to win: Bronko wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Litke (D)
29%
chance of winning
Bronko (R)
71%
- Average margin
- R+4.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (44% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Litke (D)
44%
chance of winning
Bronko (R)
56%
- Average margin
- R+1.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Jeff Litke
RepublicanIncumbent
Seth Bronko
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Connecticut state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.03 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.33 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.33 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 18,476
- People per km²
- 703
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 29%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 60%
- Hispanic 17%
- Black 10%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
10,203 votes · R+10.1✓ Seth Bronko (R)55.1%
Jeff Litke (D)44.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
8,438 two-party votes · R+10.0 · R+8.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.0%
Kamala Harris (D)45.0%
2022
7,472 votes · R+12.5✓ Seth Bronko (R)56.2%
Jeff Litke (D)43.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
10,931 votes · R+19.8✓ Rosa C Rebimbas (R)59.9%
Stephen Samela (D)40.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
11,210 two-party votes · R+5.4 · R+10.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.7%
Joe Biden (D)47.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
9,522 two-party votes · R+16.7 · R+18.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.7%