Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › Connecticut House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut House District 52
FusionVail is clearly favored to win: Vail wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Tocci (D)
9%
chance of winning
Vail (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+9.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Vail is clearly favored to win: Vail wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Tocci (D)
17%
chance of winning
Vail (R)
83%
- Average margin
- R+8.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Vincent Tocci
RepublicanIncumbent
Kurt Vail
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Connecticut state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.27 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.57 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.57 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 22,763
- People per km²
- 59
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 58%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
14,623 votes · R+15.2✓ Kurt Vail (R)57.6%
Ethan R Werstler (D)42.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
15,253 two-party votes · R+14.3 · R+12.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.2%
Kamala Harris (D)42.8%
2022
10,846 votes · R+27.0✓ Kurt Vail (R)63.5%
Gregg Dafoe (D)36.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
11,777 votes · R+29.2✓ Kurt Vail (R)64.6%
Greg Post (D)35.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
15,057 two-party votes · R+9.7 · R+14.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.8%
Joe Biden (D)45.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
13,723 two-party votes · R+18.5 · R+20.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.7%