Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › Connecticut House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut House District 107
FusionProjected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (64%).
Kerton is favored to win: Kerton wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Kerton (D)
64%
chance of winning
Foncello (R)
36%
- Average margin
- D+2.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (80%).
Kerton is clearly favored to win: Kerton wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Kerton (D)
80%
chance of winning
Foncello (R)
20%
- Average margin
- D+8.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Julie Kerton
RepublicanIncumbent
Marty Foncello
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Connecticut state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.51 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.76 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -3.76 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 23,175
- People per km²
- 285
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 57%
- White, no degree
- 32%of adults
- White 75%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 5%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
14,218 votes · R+5.2✓ Martin J Foncello (R)52.6%
Aaron Zimmer (D)47.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
14,858 two-party votes · Even · D+1.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.0%
Kamala Harris (D)50.0%
2022
10,949 votes · R+8.3✓ Martin Foncello (R)54.2%
Phoebe Holmes (D)45.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
15,079 votes · R+15.8✓ Stephen G Harding (R)57.9%
Kerri Colombo (D)42.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
15,571 two-party votes · D+4.5 · Even vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.3%
Donald Trump (R)47.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
13,380 two-party votes · R+5.8 · R+8.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.1%
Also on the ballot in Connecticut
Neighboring districts
HD-2Raghib Allie-BrennanDeborah Rizzo99%Dem.97%Dem. HD-67Alexandra ThomasBill BuckbeeD flip66%Rep.60%Dem. HD-69—Jason Buchsbaum>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-106Michelle Embree KuMitch BolinskyD flipD flip91%Dem.96%Dem. HD-108Anne WeisbergPat CallahanFlip riskD flip56%Dem.72%Dem. HD-109Farley SantosEd Vachovetz99%Dem.96%Dem.